Win rate = (number of profitable trades) ÷ (total trades). Include scratches as losses (0R). Include all trades, even small ones. Most traders accidentally inflate their win rate by excluding losing trades from review, forgetting small losses, or breaking up "trials" into separate trades. Real win rate is usually 35–50% for profitable traders. If yours is >60%, double-check the calculation.
- Include scratches as 0 trades (slight losses), not as wins
- One trade you exit twice is one trade, not two
- Back-test statistics are not forward trading statistics
- Survivor bias: forgotten losses hurt your average
- 40% win rate can be highly profitable if average wins are 2R and losses are 1R
Most traders don't know their real win rate because they calculate it wrong.
The correct formula
Win rate = (number of winning trades) ÷ (total trades)
Example:
- 50 trades
- 18 wins (+$)
- 24 losses (−$)
- 8 scratches (±$0 or close to break even)
Calculation:
- Wins: 18
- Total: 50
- Win rate: 18 ÷ 50 = 36%
Simple. But most traders mess this up.
Common mistakes that inflate win rate
Mistake 1: Excluding scratch trades
❌ Wrong: Win rate = 18 ÷ (18 + 24) = 43% (You left out the 8 scratches)
✅ Right: Win rate = 18 ÷ 50 = 36% (Scratches are included; they're still trades)
Why it matters: A scratch is not a win. You didn't make money. You spent commission/slippage to break even. Count it as a trade.
Mistake 2: Only counting big trades
❌ Wrong: "I'll only count trades >$100. My win rate is 52%." (You forgot the $25 and $50 losses)
✅ Right: Count every trade.
Why it matters: You're gaming the statistic. The $25 losses still happened. They reduced your account.
Mistake 3: Forgetting about losses
❌ "I had 20 winning trades this month." (You also had 15 losing trades, but forgot to mention them.)
✅ "I had 20 wins and 15 losses = 20÷35 = 57% win rate."
Mistake 4: Mixing backtests with live trading
❌ "My backtest shows 65% win rate, so I know I'm profitable."
❌ Live trading: 38% win rate.
Why it's different: Backtest has:
- No slippage
- No commission
- No gap fills / missed stops
- Perfect data
- No emotional execution errors
Live trading is more realistic. Use live stats.
Mistake 5: Entering one trade twice
❌ Example: You enter at $150, exit at $148 (−$50 loss). Then you re-enter at $148, exit at $152 (+$100 win). You count this as 2 trades, 1 loss + 1 win = 50% win rate.
✅ This is ONE trade with re-entry. Depending on your rules, it's either:
- One trade (−$50 loss if re-entry doesn't exist in your plan)
- OR: One trade split into two legs (more complex, but still one logical trade)
Why it matters: Re-entries change your win rate artificially. If your rule allows re-entry, log it as a separate decision, but acknowledge it's part of the same setup.
Mistake 6: Survivor bias (forgotten losses)
❌ "Let me think back to last month... I remember I was up +$500. That means my win rate was good."
You forgot the two −$300 losers that happened 2 weeks ago.
✅ Use your journal. Don't rely on memory.
Why it matters: Your brain remembers big wins and forgets small losses. Win rate calculated from memory is fake.
Your Journal Should Find the Pattern for You
TRADZY's TradLog tags every trade by setup, session and emotion, then shows where your edge actually is.
Start Your Free Journal →What a realistic win rate looks like
By trading style:
| Style | Typical win rate | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day trading (scalps) | 55–65% | +0.4R | −1.0R | Often negative |
| Breakout trading | 40–50% | +1.5R | −1.0R | +0.25–0.40R |
| Swing trading (trends) | 35–45% | +1.8R | −1.0R | +0.35–0.50R |
| Options selling | 65–75% | +0.3R | −2.0R | Often negative |
If your win rate is >60%, check:
- Are you excluding losses?
- Are you trading only your best setups? (OK if 100% intentional)
- Are you confusing backtests with live trades?
- Are you counting scratches as wins?
High win rates don't mean profitability. Traders with 30% win rate and 3:1 payoff ratio are often more profitable than traders with 60% win rate and 0.8:1 payoff ratio.
The real number: expectancy
Win rate tells you frequency. Expectancy tells you profitability.
| Trader | Win rate | Avg win | Avg loss | Expectancy | Profit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 60% | +0.7R | −1.0R | −0.02R | ❌ No |
| B | 40% | +2.0R | −1.0R | +0.60R | ✅ Yes |
Trader A has higher win rate but loses money. Trader B has lower win rate but is highly profitable.
Focus on expectancy, not win rate.
Calculating by setup
After 50+ trades, calculate win rate per setup:
| Setup | Trades | Wins | Win rate | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORB | 25 | 12 | 48% | +0.35R |
| VWAP reclaim | 18 | 7 | 39% | +0.42R |
| Gap fade | 12 | 5 | 42% | −0.08R |
Your ORB has higher win rate but lower expectancy. The VWAP reclaim is your real edge.
FAQ
Should I calculate win rate by day or by month?
Both. Per-day gives you volatility (how lumpy is performance). Per-month gives you the big picture. | Month | Win rate | |---|---| | September | 42% | | October | 38% | | November | 48% | | Average | 43% | Consistency is good. Swings suggest something's changing month-to-month.
What's a good win rate?
Depends on payoff ratio. - 50% win rate + 1:1 payoff = breakeven - 40% win rate + 1.5:1 payoff = profitable - 30% win rate + 2.5:1 payoff = profitable There's no "good" win rate in isolation.
Should I set a daily win rate target?
No. Too small a sample. If you take 10 trades per day, one day you might be 70%, the next 30%. It's noise. Set weekly or monthly targets instead.
If I have zero losses this week (100% win rate), am I on fire?
Maybe. Or maybe you took only 3 trades and got lucky. Calculate after 30+ trades before celebrating.
How does commission affect win rate?
It doesn't change the win-rate calculation, but it eats into your edge. Example: Your setup has +0.15R expectancy before commission. After $5 commission per trade, you net +0.10R. Your setup is barely profitable. Reduce commissions (better broker, higher volume discounts) or switch setups.
Is 50% win rate possible with random entries?
By pure chance, yes. If you enter and exit randomly 100 times, ~50% should win (ignoring commission/slippage). But your 50% win rate + positive average win is real edge. Prove it with 100+ trades.
Put This Into Practice
- Log your next 20 trades with setup, session and emotion tags
- Let the TradLog surface your best and worst setups
- Run the weekly review and cut one leak
Start Free in TRADZY →
Educational content, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.